It’s day 3 of our predictions, and today we tackle the NL Central.  The Central Division is going to be one of the most competitive divisions in all of baseball.  In my opinion, any of the top four teams listed below have a shot at the division title; it’s mainly going to come down to health and depth.  Here’s what we see happening in the central division this year:

1.  Brewers
2.  Cardinals
3.  Reds
4.  Cubs
5.  Astros
6.  Pirates

Milwaukee Brewers:  The Brewers made the biggest off-season splash out of anyone in the division by trading for Zack Greinke.  This came after they acquired Shaun Marcum from the Blue Jays.  If one couples those two along with Yovanni Gallardo, he would have to say that they have the best top three of anyone in the division.  Randy Wolf is a serviceable number four starter, and their rotation will be rounded out by Chris Narveson.  The biggest question with the Brewers is the same question all of other teams in the division have–can they stay healthy?  So far, the answer to that question has been a pretty loud “no”.  Luckily for the Brewers, none of the injuries have been too major, but their Opening Day starter Greinke will be out for at least the first few starts of the season after injuring some ribs playing basketball.  Marcum has been facing some shoulder problems as well, but hopes not to miss any time.  The Brewers lineup is very, very solid at the top.  Rickie Weeks had a great season last year and should repeat if he can ward off the injuries he’s faced throughout his career.  Corey Hart and Casey McGehee provide surprising pop as well.  Superstars Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder continue to pack a punch in the middle of their lineup.  This will most likely be Fielder’s last year with the Brewers, as his agent Scott Boras isn’t known for giving hometown discounts.  Another question with this team is their ability to provide much from the bottom of their order.  After you get past likely number five hitter McGehee, there’s not much there in catcher Jonathon Lucroy, CF Carlos Gomez and SS Yuniesky Betancourt.  If this team loses one of their top four starting pitchers for more than a month or a middle of the order hitter, you can forget about this first place prediction.  They gave up a lot to get Marcum and Greinke and are absolutely going for broke this year.

St. Louis Cardinals:  There’s no need to spend a lot of time going over the Cardinals, as most of you who are reading this are extremely familiar with the team.  After losing Adam Wainwright to Tommy John surgery, the Cardinals’ biggest asset–their starting pitching–took a huge hit.  The difference between a first place finish and a fourth place is not a matter of performance but a matter of health.  The Cardinals have a lot of promising players in the low minors, but other than Matt Carpenter at 3B, there isn’t a lot of help in Memphis.  There are so many question marks with this team (read David Freese and Lance Berkman) that it’s impossible for us to pick them to finish first, but if everything goes right and we have our top five starters and eight position players make it through the year relatively unscathed, there’s no reason to think that a division championship isn’t possible.

Cincinnati Reds:  Most of the experts are picking this team to finish first, but we here at Cards Droppings just don’t see it.  Their strength is their rotation–they have seven starters capable of succeeding in the major leagues.  That being said, you can only use five of them.  And the five that they do have aren’t aces by any means.  Johnny Cueto is already suffering from shoulder tendinitis, so their projected Opening Day rotation is Edinson Volquez, Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, Travis Wood and Mike Leake.  Do any of you see anyone who will strike fear into a healthy Brewer or Cardinal lineup?  We don’t.  Offensively, the Reds have some very nice pieces, but they also have some pieces who aren’t getting any younger.  Scott Rolen had a great first half, but he struggled quite a bit after the All-Star break.  Brandon Phillips is still one of the top second basemen in the league, but again, will he strike fear into opposing pitchers with his .275, 18HR and 59 RBI line from last year?  Last year’s MVP Joey Votto doesn’t have any holes, and both Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs could provide quite a bit of offensive potential.  Everyone seems to be handing the division title to this team, but we just don’t see why.  It’s entirely possible that Rolen and Phillips could have down years, and on top of that, there are several lineup positions (LF Gomes, SS Janish / Renteria and C Hernandez / Hanigan) that won’t be any better than any of the division contenders.  It’s not a perfect way to compare, but if we look at it as a relatively unbiased judge, wouldn’t you take Matt Holliday over Gomes, Rasmus over Stubbs, Molina over Hernandez, and Pujols over Votto?  That would leave Bruce vs. Berkman, which doesn’t seem to be that big of a gap; Rolen over Freese, which again, involves all kinds of health questions and not a big gap; Phillips over Schumaker (big advantage Reds).  Theriot vs Janish / Renteria is a push.  You could do the same thing with our starting staff, and I think you would begin to wonder why everyone thinks the Central Race is the Reds to lose.

Chicago Cubs:  The Cubs have a nice front three starting rotation as well.  Their Opening Day starter will be Ryan Dempster, who is nothing if not dependable.  The key to their year will be new acquisition Matt Garza.  He pitched very well in the extremely tough AL East, and if his success can continue in the central, the Cubs will have a very solid top two. Carlos Zambrano had an up and down year last year, to say the least.  He went from being Chicago’s Opening Day starter to a mop-up guy in the bullpen to a guy that anchored Chicago’s rotation during the final two months of the year, going 8-0 down the stretch.  If Zambrano can be the guy that he was in August and September, then again, you could see this team compete for a division title.  At their four and five starter positions, the Cubs most likely have Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner, both of whom should be serviceable.  A funny thing to note here is the horrendous spring that rotation candidate Carlos Silva has had, but what do you expect from a guy you got by trading Milton Bradley?  On the offensive side of things, the Cubs have a lot of the same pieces that you’ve seen from them in years’ past–Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto and Marlon Byrd.  If three of these four guys can produce at a high level, things could be fun in Chicago for most of the year.  Shortstop Starlin Castro isn’t ready for prime time yet, but within a few years, we’ll be talking about him as one of the best shortstops in the National League.  Newly acquired Carlos Pena is an interesting case study, as he hit .196 with 28 home runs last year for Tampa.  How will his bat play in the National League?  The Cubs didn’t take too much of a gamble with him (1 year, $10 million), so anything they get from him is going to be gravy.  The biggest problem this writer has with the Cubs is that they don’t have any superstars in their prime (see Pujols, Albert or Holliday, Matt with the Cardinals; Braun, Ryan or Fielder, Prince with the Brewers; Votto, Joey and Bruce, Jay with the Reds).  It’s absolutely possible that some of the veterans like Ramirez and Pena could propel the Cubs to a fun September, to say the least.

Houston Astros:  The Astros surprised a lot of teams in the second half last year and actually played almost as well as the Cardinals did.  The biggest positive about the Astros is their pitching staff.  Although the names may not be household names for everyone, a front four of Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Myers, J.A. Happ and Cardinal killer Bud Norris should keep the team in a lot of games.  Unfortunately, their rotation won’t be enough to overcome their lack of offense.  Hunter Pence is improving every year, but Carlos Lee is on the downside of his career.  Other than that, there’s not a lot to look at here.

Pittsburgh Pirates:  The Pirates have suffered through seventeen losing seasons in a row, and 2011 will undoubtedly mark their 18th in a row.  The good news for the Pirates is they do have a lot of decent pieces already in place.  The bad news is that their starting rotation doesn’t have much in terms of big names.  Paul Maholm has already proven that he’s not capable of being an ace, but James McDonald does have the potential to someday grow into a #1 or #2 starter for this team.  Their best pieces include Pedro Alvarez (who could be a monster this year), Andrew McCutcheon and Jose Tabata. Neil Walker at second will also be a nice little piece.  If the Pirates are to get out of this cycle of losing, they’re going to have to find at least two high quality starters as well as a long term solution at first base and shortstop.

Filed In: Outside Cardinal Nation | Tags: Brewers, NL Central, predictions, United Cardinal Bloggers

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