We’ve come to our last division in our week long project for UCB.  Today, we tackle the NL West, a division absolutely loaded with pitching.  Here’s how we see the division breaking down this year:

1.  San Francisco
2.  Colorado
3.  Los Angeles
4.  San Diego
5.  Arizona

San Francisco:  The biggest surprise in baseball had to be the World Champion San Francisco Giants.  They were able to ride their pitching staff to a playoff birth and then dominated in the playoffs.  Their staff is anchored by two-time Cy Young award winner Tim Linecum.  Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez are very solid at the #2 and #3 spots.  Barry Zito and his $126 million contract occupy the fourth spot, and second year pitcher Madison Bumgarner rounds out the rotation.  There aren’t really too many questions in the rotation, but one will have to watch to see if the extra innings that all of these guys pitched will take a toll on their performance this year.  Still, it’s impossible for us to pick against a team with a rotation this good, especially one that will be fitted for World Series rings in a week or two.  On the offensive side of the ball, the Giants did lose shortstop Juan Uribe and replaced him with Miguel Tejada.  This shouldn’t be a major problem for them, especially since they will have a full year of superstar catcher Buster Posey.  The major questions we would ask of this offensive unit are whether or not Aubrey Huff and Pat Burrell can continue to produce at a high level.  Another thing to watch will be the performance of Pablo
Sandoval. Once considered an up-and-coming superstar, Sandoval struggled mightily last year.  Keep an eye on rookie Brandon Belt, as he could push his way into San Francisco’s starting lineup at some point very soon.  A major red flag for the team going into the season is the health status of closer Brian Wilson.  Wilson was a huge reason for the team’s success in the postseason, and if he’s out for a long period of time with his oblique problem, that could definitely put a damper on San Fran’s chances.  If he’s able to come back rather quickly, we wouldn’t be surprised to see San Francisco win this division by 7-8 games.

Colorado:  Although it would have been hard to imagine this five or ten years ago, Colorado now boasts a pretty formidable pitching staff.  Ubaldo Jimenez could easily have won the Cy Young Award last year had he continued his torrid start.  Jorge De La Rosa is a very underrated pitcher and could break out in a big way this season.  Jhoulys Chacin has the potential to someday be an ace, and if he can start on that path this season, Colorado could definitely surprise some teams.  The back end of the rotation leaves a little bit to be desired, but Jason Hammel and Esmil Rogers aren’t the worst four and five starters in the league.  Offensively, the Rockies are anchored by Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, both of whom were locked into long term contracts this off-season.  There are also some players with the potential to have a breakout season in their lineup.  One could place Ian Stewart, Dexter Fowler and Seth Smith in that category.  The Rockies boast at least an average bat at every position, which puts them, at least to us, ahead of the Dodgers this year.

Los Angeles:  The Dodgers have a very nice rotation from top to bottom as well. If either Chad Billingsley or Clayton Kershaw can take a step up from they currently are, it’s conceivable that they could match the Giants’ rotation in terms of depth and overall ability.  To go along with the two aforementioned hurlers, the Dodgers have Ted Lilly, Hiroki Kuroda and Jon Garland.  Even if you give the Dodgers a best-case scenario with their pitching staff, it’s hard to see them being able to match up with San Francisco offensively.  They do have some very nice pieces in Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and to some extent Rafael Furcal, but there are a LOT of holes in this lineup.  Casey Blake at 3rd, Juan Uribe at 2B, James Loney at 1B, Jay Gibbons / Marcus Thames in LF and Rod Barajas at catcher.  Seems to us that pitchers will be pitching around Ethier and Kemp quite a bit.  At closer, Jonathan Broxton needs a bounce back season as well; he struggled mightily in the second half of last year.

San Diego:  San Diego came from nowhere last year and nearly made the playoffs.  Manager Bud Black did an amazing job managing a team that equaled more than the of its parts.  Staff Ace Matt Latos was a big part of that, and he should continue to dominate in his home ballpark again this year.  Clayton Richard is a solid pitcher, but it seems to us that Tim Stauffer, Aaron Harang and Dustin Mosely aren’t going to be good enough, even in the pitcher’s haven that is San Diego’s home park.  The biggest problem is that this team has almost nothing offensively.  They traded away superstar Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox when they knew they couldn’t sign him.  One of the ways we judge the quality of a team’s lineup is to see how many players you would draft in a twelve team fantasy league.  Other than perhaps Ryan Ludwick, it’s hard to see anyone on this team as a major contributor to a fantasy team (or the Padres for that matter).  As usual, San Diego’s bullpen is a big strength of their team.  Closer Heath Bell’s name has been rumored in trades and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he’s one of the first closers to be traded this year.

Arizona:  The Diamondbacks are a team that is going in the right direction, but as you’ve seen with most of our teams predicted last, there are just way too many holes.  Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson are at the top of their rotation, and they’re finally producing the way scouts thought that they would a few years ago. That being said, they’re a long way from being Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling from the championship Diamondback teams from a few years back.  Their staff is rounded out by Joe Saunders, Barry Enright and Armando Galaragga (he of near perfect game fame).  Stephen Drew, Miguel Montero, Chris Young and Justin Upton should form a decent middle of the order, but a lineup that also includes Melvin Mora and Xavier Nady can’t be counted on for too much production.  It will be interesting to see if Kelly Johnson can have another successful season for the team.

Filed In: Outside Cardinal Nation | Tags: Giants, NL West, predictions, United Cardinal Bloggers

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